Data Activity 10 / Unit 12
Task
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A fair die with faces numbered from 1 to 6 is rolled. Calculate the probability that the die lands with an even number uppermost?
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Coronary heart disease (CHD) is currently the most common cause of death in the UK. In 2002, of 288 332 male deaths, 64 473 were from CHD, and of 318 463 female deaths, 53 003 were from CHD.
Estimate the following probabilities. The probability that a randomly chosen UK man who dies in a future year will die of CHD. The probability that a randomly chosen UK woman who dies in a future year will die of CHD. How accurate are your estimates likely to be?
Process
1 - 3/6 faces are even (2, 4 and 6) therefore probability is even numbers / total possibilities = 3/6 = 1/2 = 0.5
2a - Probability that a random chosen UK man who dies will die from CHD is number of male CHD deaths / total male deaths;
64 473 / 288 322 = 0.22 therefore probability is 0.22
2b - Probability that a random chosen UK woman who dies will die from CHD is number of female CHD deaths / total female deaths;;
53 003 / 318 463 = 0.17 therefore probability is 0.17
The historic numbers given come from a large sample and therefore we may expexct this to be a good estimate, however the data was from a single year and it would be useful to see if this is in keeping with other years. Additionally there could be other factors in play for future years that are not accounted for (medical developments, changes in smoking levels, more serious flu season or other pandemic). It should also be considered that health status or cause of death may differ between regions of the UK.